The price of ugali, Kenya’s most consumed staple, is set to rise further after the government declined to review packaging regulations that require maize and wheat flour to be wrapped in taxed paper materials, a decision that millers and traders say will be passed directly to consumers.
Ugali is not merely a food item in Kenya — it is a dietary cornerstone for millions of households, particularly in low-income urban areas and rural communities where it constitutes the primary source of daily calories. Any increase in its cost carries significant social and political weight, as previous flour price spikes have triggered public protests and prompted emergency government interventions.
The Kenya Association of Manufacturers has repeatedly lobbied for a review of packaging levies, arguing that the mandatory use of specific paper grades adds unnecessary cost to the production chain. Millers say imported paper packaging materials attract duties that inflate operational costs, a burden that has grown alongside a weaker shilling. The Kenyan currency lost roughly 20 percent of its value against the dollar in 2023 before recovering partially in 2024, making dollar-denominated imports considerably more expensive.
Wheat flour is equally exposed. Kenya imports the majority of its wheat, sourcing heavily from Eastern Europe and, historically, from Ukraine and Russia — two countries whose ongoing conflict disrupted global grain markets and contributed to elevated commodity prices that have yet to fully normalise.
The National Cereals and Produce Board has limited strategic reserve capacity, meaning price buffers available to government are constrained. Consumer advocacy groups are urging the Treasury to reconsider the packaging tax regime ahead of the next budget cycle, warning that continued inaction will deepen food insecurity among the estimated 3.5 million Kenyans already facing acute hunger, according to recent government assessments.

