UDA rejects ODM's zoning plan, says it could hurt Ruto's re-election bid

Senior officials in President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance have moved to publicly reject a proposed electoral arrangement that would formalize ODM's status as the unchallenged political force in the Nyanza region, warning the plan carries serious risks for the president's 2027 re-election prospects.

The concept of zoning — a negotiated agreement between allied or friendly parties to avoid fielding competing candidates in each other's strongholds — has been floated within discussions about how to manage Kenya Kwanza's coalition architecture heading into the next electoral cycle. UDA officials argued this week, however, that ceding ground to Raila Odinga's ODM in Nyanza would prove strategically damaging.

Nyanza, which encompasses counties including Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, and Nyamira, has historically been ODM's strongest territory and delivered some of Odinga's most commanding electoral performances. Ruto's share of the vote in the region was modest in 2022, but the area's large registered voter population means even marginal gains there could prove consequential in a tightly contested race.

UDA officials argued that entering a formal zoning arrangement would effectively signal to Nyanza voters that the ruling party has abandoned the region, risking the suppression of turnout among Ruto's sympathisers and discouraging local organisers who have been cultivating membership at the grassroots level. One official described it as surrendering competitive ground before a single vote is cast.

The remarks highlight a live tension within Kenya's ruling political establishment over 2027 coalition strategy. Some strategists favour formalised agreements to prevent expensive intra-coalition contests, while others argue that maintaining a competitive presence in every region is non-negotiable. Under Kenya's constitutional framework, a winning presidential candidate must secure at least 25 percent of votes cast in at least 24 of the country's 47 counties.