Kenya Coffee Output Set to Rebound 13% on Record Prices and Reforms

Kenya's coffee sector is poised for a significant turnaround, with national output forecast to climb 13.3 percent to 850,000 bags during the 2025/2026 crop year. The projected rebound follows years of declining yields and comes on the back of record-breaking global prices at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange, where beans have been fetching an average of $363 per 50-kilogram bag, and a targeted government intervention designed to breathe new life into one of the country's most storied agricultural industries.

The record prices at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange have proved a powerful incentive for farmers across Kenya's traditional growing regions, including Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a and Kiambu counties. For smallholder farmers who had long watched their earnings erode under the weight of middlemen, cooperative mismanagement and rising input costs, the improved returns represent a meaningful shift. Analysts say sustained high prices are encouraging growers to invest in pruning, fertilising and rehabilitating trees that had been left to stagnate over the past decade.

Central to the recovery is the government's Coffee Revival Through Cooperative Societies Programme, a policy-driven initiative aimed at restructuring the cooperative model that forms the backbone of Kenya's coffee value chain. The programme targets the rehabilitation of farmer-owned cooperative societies, many of which had been weakened by debt, mismanagement and political interference. By restoring cooperative governance and channelling support directly to growers, the initiative seeks to close the gap between farm-gate earnings and international market prices, ensuring that more of the value generated at auction reaches the farmers who produce the beans.

A notable factor supporting the revival is a slowdown in the conversion of coffee farmland to real estate development. For years, land pressure around Nairobi and other urban centres had pushed coffee farmers to sell or subdivide their plots for housing, steadily shrinking the productive acreage available for cultivation. The easing of this trend, partly linked to improved farm profitability, has helped stabilise the land base available to the sector and allowed long-term investment in orchards to become viable again.

Looking ahead, the momentum is expected to carry through into the following season. Coffee exports from Kenya are forecast to reach 940,000 bags in 2026/2027, representing a nearly 12 percent increase on the prior period. This export growth signals not only higher domestic production but also renewed international buyer confidence in Kenyan coffee, which commands premium prices in specialty markets across Europe, the United States and Asia for its distinctive bright, wine-like acidity.

The projected rebound carries broad economic implications for Kenya. Coffee remains one of the country's top agricultural export earners, and a sustained recovery would bolster foreign exchange inflows, support rural household incomes and strengthen the cooperative sector as a vehicle for smallholder development. If the government's revival programme delivers on its promise and global price levels remain favourable, Kenya's coffee industry could be on course to reclaim ground lost over two difficult decades.